Punjab’s Fertility Decline Has Already Begun — the Average Is Hiding It

Punjab’s average woman is predicted to have around 3.5 children by age 35.

But the average conceals a major demographic divide.

Among higher-educated urban women in non-cousin marriages, the predicted number falls to 2.8 children.

Among never-educated rural women in cousin marriages, it rises to 4.3 children.

That is a gap of 1.5 children between two groups living in the same province.

Education, urbanisation and changing marriage patterns appear to be reshaping fertility well before the provincial average fully reflects the transition.

Averages are often lagging indicators. They combine groups moving rapidly towards fewer children with groups where family size remains high. As the composition of Punjab changes—more girls become educated, more families urbanise and marriage patterns evolve—the overall average is likely to decline further.

Punjab is therefore not waiting for a fertility transition. The transition is already underway, but it is highly unequal.