State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Business Confidence Survey Dashboard

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Business Confidence Survey Dashboard — Summary & Capabilities

Developed by Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics | Data Source: State Bank of Pakistan (sbp.org.pk) & IBA

📌 What Is This Dashboard?

The SBP Business Confidence Survey Dashboard is a premier economic forecasting and monitoring platform built on microdata published by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in collaboration with the Institute of Business Administration (IBA). This monthly survey captures data from senior managers of large, registered corporations across Pakistan. By converting qualitative corporate sentiments into structured indicators, this dashboard serves as a crucial leading indicator for national economic activity, monetary policy formulation, and short-term market forecasting.

🔑 Key Capabilities

• 1. Headline Business Confidence Index (BCI)

  • Master BCI Tracking: Visualizes the weighted average of the corporate sector’s sentiment, easily filterable by Industry (0.25 weight) and Services (0.75 weight).

  • Threshold-Based Analysis: Clear indicators showing whether the economy is in the growth/optimism zone (scores above 50) or contraction/pessimism zone (scores below 50).

  • Sub-Index Disaggregation: Breaks down overall confidence into the Current Business Confidence Index (CBCI) (past 6 months evaluation) and the Expected Business Confidence Index (EBCI) (next 6 months outlook).

  2. Core Sector Deep Dives

  • Industry & Manufacturing: Sentiments specifically from manufacturing units, including production trends, capacity utilization levels, and raw material procurement.

  • Services, Wholesale & Retail: Tracks corporate health within the services domain, wholesale/retail trade, telecommunications, and financial services.

  • Construction & Infrastructure: Dedicated tracking for real estate development and construction sector dynamics when applicable in the wave.

  3. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) & Operational Metrics

  • PMI Tracker: Monitors business activity, total order books, stock of finished goods, and speed of suppliers’ deliveries.

  • Capacity Utilization: Tracks the Average Current Capacity Utilization (ACCU) percentage within the manufacturing industry to gauge industrial productivity.

  • Production & Product Demand: Forward-looking charts predicting future demand for companies’ products.

  4. Macroeconomic Variables & Banking Indicators

  • Inflation & Input Cost Expectations: Visualizes the percentage of businesses anticipating higher prices, tracking both Input Prices (raw materials) and Average Selling Prices.

  • Credit Demand & Access: Tracks corporate views on the current and expected demand for bank credit, alongside the ease or difficulty of accessing commercial bank loans.

  • Exchange Rate Outlook: Corporate expectations regarding the value and stability of the Pakistani Rupee (PKR).

  5. Employment & Hiring Intentions

  • Hiring Indices: Tracks near-term labor market dynamics through the Current Employment Index and Expected Employment Index, showcasing whether industries plan to expand their workforce or downsize.

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📊 Data Decoded — SBP BCS Terminology Simplified

• The dashboard cuts through complex economic modeling to explain SBP’s survey mechanics in plain English:

  • Diffusion Index (DI): The scoring system used by SBP. It converts qualitative answers (Very Positive, Positive, Same, Negative, Very Negative) into a score between 0 and 100.

  • The 50 Neutral Mark: A score of exactly 50 means neutrality. Scores greater than 50 show market expansion and optimism, while scores less than 50 indicate market contraction and negative sentiment.

  • Industry vs. Services Weightage: To accurately reflect the GDP structure, SBP assigns a heavier weight of 75% to the Services sector and 25% to the Industrial sector to compute the final headline BCI.

   

👥 Who Is This For?

• • Corporate Leaders & CFOs — Evaluate your firm’s performance, credit utilization, and pricing strategies against national industry benchmarks.

  • Commercial Bankers & Fund Managers — Gauge credit demand trends and sector-specific risks to optimize corporate lending portfolios.

  • Policy Makers & Central Bankers — Access real-time sentiment data used directly as an input for setting national interest rates and monetary policy.

  • Supply Chain & Logistics Providers — Track supplier delivery times and order book trends to forecast freight and inventory demands.

  • Economic Researchers & Journalists — Fetch clean, un-biased visual data tracking production capacities and macro anxieties of Pakistan’s largest employers.