Child marriage in Pakistan fell from 37% to 22% in a generation. Half of the fall is the shift to more schooling; half happened inside each schooling level.

We at Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics looked at women married before age 18 across three birth cohorts, using PDHS 2017-18.

Because PDHS interviewed only ever-married women, we rebuilt the share for all women by combining the household roster with age at marriage.

Women aged 20-49 are covered, so everyone has passed 18 and their status is complete.

The fall:

→ 36.5% of women born in 1968-77 were married before 18.
→ 28.5% of those born in 1978-87.
→ 21.7% of those born in 1988-97.

Where it came from: we split the 14.7-point fall into two parts. 7.7 points came from girls moving into more schooling. Complete secondary schooling or more rose from 16.6% to 36.5% of women. The other 7.1 points came from lower rates among women at the same level of schooling.

Inside each schooling level, between the oldest and youngest cohorts:

→ No education to primary: 43% to 34%
→ Secondary: 24% to 15%
→ Higher education: 4% to 2.5%

The gaps remain large. Among the youngest women, 34% of those with no education to primary were married before 18, against 2.5% of those with higher education.

By province (oldest to youngest cohort): Punjab 34% to 17%, Sindh 40% to 27%, KP 40% to 30%, Balochistan 42% to 29%. Provincial intervals are wide, so read the differences between provinces with care.

What this does not tell us:

→ Schooling and early marriage shape each other. A girl married at 15 rarely finishes school, so the split shows the pattern, not the direction of cause.

→ Age at marriage is self-reported, and older cohorts are recalling events from 20 to 30 years ago. Reports show mild heaping at 18.

→ Women aged 15-19 are excluded because their exposure to marriage before 18 is incomplete.

Chart design inspired by Abid Hasan’s Bangladesh MICS 2025 visual.

Source: Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18 (NIPS and ICF), weighted. Analysis by Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics.