Is Pakistan Training Doctors for Export? Doctor Numbers Rise — But 15–25% of That Rise Walks Out Each Year

Using official data, we compared:

✔ annual increase in registered doctors

with

✔ formal emigration of doctors

📌 In most years, the number of doctors formally emigrating is equivalent to 10–25% of the annual increase in registered doctors.

📌 In some years (2014–16, 2023), the outflow is especially high relative to growth.

📌 Even when production accelerates (2021–24), emigration remains large in absolute numbers.

So the issue is not only how many doctors Pakistan produces.

It is also about:how many remain in the system.

The policy question becomes:

Are we designing a system that keeps doctors —or one that trains them for export?

To me those doctors who spent money out of their pocket have complete labor mobility like any other occupation. Those trained on tax subsidy are the issue. Question is :

a/ Can we forcibly keep them in the country ? Likely not
b/ Can we ask them to serve in rural areas or beyond the KLI ? We can ask them and they will go but begrudgingly
c/ Should we instead focus on increasing supply by perhaps reducing the number of years required to train a doctor thereby increasing supply and making the drain a non issue?

All these questions need a cool hearted debate.

Thank you Maroof A. Syed for suggesting to add this dimension to the analysis.