Pakistani mothers by number of children: large families are shrinking, but slowly. Pakistan is now where India was in 2006 (so two decades behind)

Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics team pulled Pakistan’s DHS microdata from 1990-91 and 2017-18 to see how family size has actually changed over nearly three decades — then set it against India’s five-wave NFHS series (1993-2021).

The headline: both countries are moving the same direction, but Pakistan is a good decade-plus behind.

→ In 1990-91, 47% of Pakistani mothers had 5 or more children. By 2017-18, that had fallen to 33% — real, measurable progress.

→ But India hit that same 33% mark back in 2006. Pakistan’s 2017-18 level is roughly where India was 11 years earlier. The demographic transition is happening here — just later and slower.

→ By 2021, 60% of Indian mothers had just 1 or 2 children — a clear majority. In Pakistan’s most recent DHS, the equivalent combined share was only 33%. Mothers with 3+ children are still the norm here, not the exception.

→ One structural note: India runs NFHS roughly every 5-6 years, giving a clean five-point trend line. Pakistan’s DHS rounds have been sparser — we only have two nationally representative points to work with here (1990-91 and 2017-18), which limits how precisely we can track the pace of change in between.

Data: Pakistan DHS 1990-91 and 2017-18 (NIPS). India NFHS 1993-2021 (National Statistics Office, via Data For India).