School Closures to Save Oil: Does the Math Really Add Up?

I do a preliminary analysis and happy to receive feedback .

Pakistan has around 40 million school students. Using PSLM distance-to-school data and reasonable transport assumptions, education commuting might consume roughly 1–1.2 billion litres of petrol per year. (see later how we reach this number)

At first glance, that sounds large. But compared to Pakistan’s overall energy use, the picture changes.

How big is this in national terms?

Pakistan imports roughly 24–26 billion litres of petroleum products annually.

If school commuting uses ~1–1.2 billion litres, that would represent roughly:
≈ 4–5% of total petroleum imports for the entire year. The announcement of closure of schools is however for a few days/ weeks and therefore the total saving would be less than 1% or so.

What the data suggests

Distance data shows that three-quarters of Pakistani students live within 2 km of school. That means many trips are already short and often non-motorized.

Pakistan has roughly 40 million students enrolled in schools. Distance-to-school data from PSLM shows that about 75% live within 2 km of their school, while 25% live farther away. If we assume that half of those within 2 km walk and the other half use some form of transport, this would mean roughly 25 million students travel by vehicle (15 million from the nearby group plus 10 million from those living farther away). Given Pakistan’s commuting patterns, it is reasonable to assume that about 90% of these trips are made on motorcycles and around 10% by cars. If the average school commute is roughly 7 km per day (round trip), and we use typical fuel efficiencies of about 40 km per litre for motorcycles and 12 km per litre for cars, the resulting fuel use comes to roughly 5–5.5 million litres per school day. Assuming schools operate about 200 days a year, this yields an estimated annual petrol consumption of around 1 billion litres linked to school commuting.

A simple sensitivity check suggests that the 1–1.2 billion litre estimate is a reasonable middle case. In a more conservative scenario—assuming more children within 2 km walk to school, shorter daily trips (around 6 km), and about 180 school days per year—education commuting might consume roughly 0.7 billion litres annually. In the base case, using moderate assumptions about walking rates, a 7 km average round trip, and 200 school days, the estimate comes to about 1.0–1.1 billion litres. Under a higher-use scenario, where fewer nearby students walk, average travel distances are longer (around 8 km), and schools operate for more days, annual fuel use could rise to roughly 1.5 billion litres. Overall, a reasonable range for petrol consumption linked to school commuting is therefore about 0.7 to 1.5 billion litres per year, with around 1 billion litres as a central estimate.