Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: The Province That Rose — And Then Reversed in poverty : Is that a data flaw or some thing else?

When we look at provincial poverty trends over the last two decades, one story stands out clearly.

Punjab started as the least poor province — and remains so.
Balochistan started as the poorest — and remains so.
Sindh was in middle and remains so

But Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) tells a very different story.

The Rise
In 2005–06, poverty in KP stood at 60.1% — one of the highest in the country.

Over the next decade, something remarkable happened:
2010–11: 42%
2013–14: 27.6%
2015–16: 18.0%

In just ten years, KP reduced poverty by over 40 percentage points.

By 2015–16, KP was approaching Punjab’s levels (in fact lower)

For a brief moment, it looked like a structural transformation was underway.

The Reversal

Then the trend broke.

2018–19: 28.8%

2024–25: 35.3%

Much of the earlier gains have eroded and KP is back to where it started as second poorest province.


Would be important to have a debate about what happened in KP right and what went wrong ?

The steep fall in poverty in KP is the same time when KP was worst affected by war on terror. Can the counter intuitive be true that war economy boosted economic activity and thus reduced poverty? Since war on terror has folded in a major way , the structural issues in KP economy have resurfaced?