🔌 Pakistan’s Residential Electricity: Major Learnings (2022 → 2026)
1️⃣ Household growth without demand growth
Residential consumers increased 28.2m → 34.3m (+21%)
Total residential electricity units stayed flat to slightly lower
➜ More connections, not more power most likely becasue people shifted to solar and also adversely affected by economic hardship.
2️⃣ Under-200 unit consumers increased sharply —
All 1–200 unit consumers combined (lifeline + protected + non-protected) now account for ~63% of households
The big change is within this group, not its total size
3️⃣ Massive shift within the under-200 category
Protected 1–200 unit consumers rose dramatically
Non-protected 1–200 unit consumers collapsed
➜ This reflects reclassification and policy design, not sudden poverty
4️⃣ Subsidised units now dominate consumption
Units consumed by protected households rose sharply as a share of total DISCO sales
➜ Subsidies now cover a much larger portion of actual electricity, not just people
5️⃣ Middle-consumption households are shrinking
201–300 and 301–400 unit users declined in both share and units consumed
This group historically cross-subsidised the system
6️⃣ Demand suppression is real
Flat total units despite more households indicates:
solar adoption
efficiency gains
behavioural cutbacks due to high tariffs
7️⃣ High-end consumers are not expanding
Households above 500 units remain small and stable
Their share of total units has declined, not increased
8️⃣ Lifeline users show mild upward movement
Fewer households under 50 units
Slight rise in 51–100 unit bracket
➜ marginal improvement, not deterioration
9️⃣ Revenue stress is structural
More consumers in subsidised slabs
Fewer in revenue-positive slabs
➜ tariff hikes hit a shrinking base
🔟 Electricity pricing has become a social policy tool
The grid now reflects:
fiscal pressure
political constraints
household risk-management strategies