Two Cities. Two Futures: What Sialkot vs Rawalpindi Tells Us About Urban Pakistan.

A look at long-term census data (1931–1998) reveals a quiet but powerful divergence between Sialkot and Rawalpindi.

In 1931, the two cities were nearly the same size. By 1998, Rawalpindi’s population had crossed 1 million, while Sialkot stood at just under 500,000.

This gap is not about success versus failure.

Sialkot is one of Pakistan’s most productive cities — export-led, industrial, and globally connected. Its growth has been steady, organic, and rooted in manufacturing rather than migration.

Rawalpindi, on the other hand, grew as an absorptive city — shaped by the state. Military presence, administrative importance, and later its role as Islamabad’s twin city turned it into a magnet for population inflows, services, and housing expansion.

The lesson is important:

Urban size in Pakistan is not driven by productivity alone.
It is shaped just as much by where the state goes, where jobs cluster, and where services concentrate.

If we want balanced urbanisation, we need to ask:

Are we investing only in cities that absorb people — or also in cities that produce value?

Lack of investment in Karachi commiserate to its productivity contribution for example is an important question addressed to this wider issue.